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Ever wondered where property journalists get their figures from? As someone who writes French property features for a living, I’m used to getting info sent to me, mostly by email. Every day, press releases drop into my mailbox from PRs, property developers, promoters and estate agents. Most of them make claims about a particular area, region, département, property or housing development, but very few are backed up with hard facts and figures. What I usually get is this sort of tosh:
“France is being tipped as the next big thing for canny property investors, with capital gains of 15% over the last 12 months.”
This came from a UK company selling property in France (I won’t name names because I may well have to deal with them again in the future). They sent me this info in September 2006.
Now, as this piece of puff arrived in my inbox, I happened to be working my way through the latest figures released by the FNAIM (France’s national federation of estate agents). They publish figures every quarter, which admittedly only cover the resales side of the market (for new build figures, you’ll have to read my next feature, French new build property prices – watch this space) but which are crunchy, detailed, crunchy and fascinating, once you get past the language barrier (at the time of writing, they’re only available in French).
On the front cover of each quarter’s report, they kindly put little summary boxes for people who want to get straight to the bottom line. So on the cover of l’Observatoire des Marchés de l’Ancien (snappy title) dated July 2006 was a box-out that read (I’ve translated it for you): “The slow-down in capital growth continues; year-on-year figures for the second quarter 2006 represent 8.8 per cent.”
That’s funny, I thought: 8.8 per cent doesn’t sound much like 15 per cent. It sounds more like not much more than half of 15 per cent. I looked back at previous figures and found that year-on-year capital growth figures for French resales property had indeed been 15.4 per cent… at the end of 2004.
In fact, 2004 was a great year for French property. It was the third consective year of price rises, after the comparatively dicky 2001 (7.5 per cent), the bit-better 2002 (10.4 per cent), and the decidedly perky 2003 (14.3 per cent).
The problem was, that was then, and this was…now, if you follow my drift. I wanted a statement from a French property agent about how the market was performing, from an amateur investor or holiday home-buyer’s viewpoint, as of September 2006. What I got was some out-of-date guff relevant to 2004.
I made myself a note and the next month when the new FNAIM figures came out (October 2006), I quickly looked at the front cover. “Le ralentissement de la hausse des prix est maintenant bien ancré dans le paysage conjonctuel du marché de l’ancien. Au cours du 3e trimestre 2006, les prix de l’ancien n’ont augmenté que de 4.5 pour cent sur un an, » it said.
Which is a long-winded way of saying: “Bugger. Remember what we said last time about the growth of resales property prices? Well, it’s still true. It really is slowing up. We’re talking 4.5 per cent, compared to this time last year.”
Fast-forward to early January 2007 and out come the figures for the year 2006. French property sales picked up in the last quarter of the year, so capital growth was hitting 7.1 per cent for 2006, compared to 10.4 per cent (2005), 15.4 per cent (2004) and 14.3 per cent (2003). Try plotting those figures on a graph. You’ll get an interesting curve.
OK, enough already with the figures. You can tell where this is going. Agents, developers, promoters and PR people have their own axe to grind. They can’t always be relied on to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. And even when they do, with the best will in the world, figures can be out of date by the time they get to press. FNAIM publishes its figures quarterly: by the time a journalist writing for a monthly magazine has got them, waded through them, written them into a feature and supplied their copy, a month may have elapsed: another three will have gone before a monthly title hits the newsstands.
So take anything you read with a pinch of salt, and do some homework yourself. The beauty of the internet means that websites like Crème de Languedoc can be bang up to the minute when it comes to publicizing the latest figures. Bear in mind we don’t make money on any property sales via this site (agents and private individuals pay to advertise their properties here) so although we love the Languedoc, we’re not biased when it comes to talking property prices or capital growth figures.
We’ll do our best to wade through the guff, so you don’t have to. If you feel the urge, check out www.fnaim.fr and in particular http://www.fnaim.fr/infos/prix-immobilier.aspx , but if you find the French bewildering (I mean the language, not the people – now there’s a subject for a online debate), check back here regularly for Languedoc property prices and updates on the south of France real estate market.
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